Chess thinking
Calculate variations, evaluate positions, plan several moves ahead — and know when to stop calculating and play.
The method
Thinking Ahead.
The best move isn't the one you see now — it's the one your opponent doesn't see coming.
What it is
Most people react. Rutger anticipates.
Thinking Ahead is not a motivation concept. It is a practical way of making better decisions under uncertainty — and it can be learned.
It combines decades of competitive chess, the forecasting discipline developed by Philip Tetlock's research on superforecasters, and more than twenty years of hands-on work in complex business transformations.
Three pillars
Where the method comes from.
♟
◎
Superforecasting
Think in probabilities, not certainties. Recognise bias. Update your view when the facts change.
◆
Business practice
Two decades of burning projects, chaotic processes and strategies that needed a complete rethink.
In practice
Four moves.
01
Read the board
What is really going on? Separate facts, assumptions and noise.
02
Calculate the lines
Lay out the realistic options and put honest probabilities on them.
03
Make the move
Decide clearly — and commit. A good plan now beats a perfect plan too late.
04
Keep score
Review what happened, calibrate your judgement, get better every round.
Who it is for
For people who carry the decision.
- Mid-sized companies & corporatesLeadership teams facing transformation, uncertainty or a decision that cannot wait.
- Entrepreneurs & foundersWho need a clear outside view and a sparring partner who says what others won't.